 Excitement is high in the country following the return of Dr. Olara Otunnu former UN top diplomat with crowds swelling wherever he visits despite having had a low key reception thanks to the police and a heavy morning downpour. While the regime in Kampala has denied being threatened by his home coming, Dr. Otunnu homecoming is no ordinary holiday and stakes are high on his role in the upcoming 2011 elections in this banana republic.
Already insiders within the UPC antagonistic to the current UPC leadership are drumming up support for him to replace embattled UPC president Miria Kalule Obote the widow of the country's father of the nation whom they accuse of preparing the seat for her son in what looks like a family affair. Even then the Inter Party Cooperation funded by western embassies consisting of UPC, Justice Forum and the Conservative Party strikes as yet another opportunity for the diplomat to contest against Mr. Museveni in 2011 although his candidature will likely be stifled by the candidature of FDC president retired Col. Kiiza Besigye whose contribution to the Opposition has remained unequalled and is currently their leading vote earner.
Why Now?.
Otunnu's return is no ordinary homecoming and while the diplomat has said he is in the country for a few days, his return holds political significance in as far as democratic transition in Uganda is concerned. It cannot be denied that the democratic struggle in Uganda is understood in terms of presidential elections as the state has been highly personalized and such has been Mr. Museveni's thinking. According to the President, elections provide an alternative to rid politics of bad people' and thus the emphasis on a presidential candidate by the opposition to retire Mr. Museveni to his Rwakitura ranch come 2011. The weak Ugandan opposition is desperate to galvanise support around a single candidate given Mr. Museveni's declining votes over the years in the thinking that Mr. Museveni would be defeated in a run off. This would mean sleeping in strange beds to effect the idea of retiring Mr. Museveni who has recently reappointed the electoral commission which shall have the mandate to preside over his victory in 2011. Mr. Otunnu represents the class of Ugandans who have tested the country's political current having been twice exiled first under the murderous Amin regime and later under the Museveni regime. His early resistance against the Amin rule as guild president of Makerere University expresses certain traits of valor and principled character even under the most trying times and these are the basic equipments of surival of any opposition leader in Museveni's Uganda today.
Hurdles
While otunnu has been able to pull crowds in Mbale, Lango and Bushenyi, Ugandan politics is not a crowds game and many hurdles await him.The nature of politics in Uganda is suggestive of grotesque methods of engagement that diplomats like Otunnu might find unsuiting. It is true that many Ugandans of eximious abilities have shunned politics for the chaff that comes with it and Otuunu should not be surprised when he is summoned for charges of terrorism. Even then it is still hard to ascertain whether Dr. Otunnu will have a merry sail through the UPC elections. While it is not clear whether he played a role in the current leadership wrangles or not, Mr. Otunnu is seen by many UPC leaders antagonistic to Miria Obote as a better alternative. This group led by Benson Ogwal arranged his homecoming and are traversing the country laying grounds for his election. And while Otunnu may seem to be uninvolved , the idea that the Obote family remain his biggest challenge to the UPC presidency naturally gravitate him towards the Ogwal group. There's heavy suspicion that the Okello Okello group which contests the underhand methods employed by the current leadership to sack them is in support of Dr. Otunnu as a challenger to James Akena, Miria's son who has expressed intentions of vying for the top position.. And while Otunnu could be seen shaking hands with Miria on arrival in Kampala before the press, the fact that Otunnu served in the Okello Lutwa regime that toppled her husbands's second attempt at power pints to irreconcilable difference that go beyond mere shaking of hands. Already Mr Tony Akaki, the heir to Mr.Obote and one of his sons has in an article to the press barred Dr. Otunnu from visiting his father's grave in Akokoro Village in Lango. Otunnu had intimated that he would visit his late mentor's grave to seek blessings but has been barred for abusing the Obote family's generosity. Currently his chances lay in the resolution of feuds within the UPC and winning the party ticket.
Interparty Cooperation
In Dr. Otunnu's first press conference on arrival to Uganda, he expressed the need for reconciliation and unity of forces thereby not ruling out a merger of opposition forces. By the composition of VIP's entrusted to his arrival at Entebbe Airport, Mr. Otunnu possessed all character of an opposition saviour. The presence of Interparty Cooperation chairman Ken Lukyamuzi could not be viewed only as an act of solidarity but a message to those concerned that in Otunnu, a competitor to Dr. Besigye had been found. With enough support from the UPC, he stands chances of competing with Dr. Besigye and ultimately Mr. Museveni , a man he accuses of masterminding a campaign against his election to the UN top slot twice in 1991 agaisnt Boutras Boutras Ghali and later against Koffi Annan. Mr Otunnu has also accused Mr. Museveni of sabotaging his citizenship by denying him access to a Ugandan passport. He has accused Mr. Museveni of crimes against Humanity and perpetuation of genocide in the north.
If Mr Museveni was expecting a change of voting patterns in the north with the rise of peace, the appearance of Otunnu a son of the soil seems to be a thorn in his flesh and an obstacle to the impending 2011 beer party cum elections.Otunnu's Luo origins and worldwide international acclaim for his stand against the war in Northern Uganda have won him enough support across the Karuma. His role as UN special envoy for children in conflict has helped highlight the plight of the children in northern Uganda which has gained momentum in the west to the point of pressurizing Mr. Museveni to explore peace negotitiaons as an alternative to the military option. While there have been reports connecting him to the LRA sympathizers and supporters. It is true that the LRA and Joesph Kony and the people of Northern Uganda highly regard Mr. Otunnu and yet like many elite from the north he may harbour sympathy for the LRA as a homegrown solution to Mr. Museveni's dictatorship.
Rugged political terrain
Many analysts have pointed to Dr. Otunnu's long stay in exile as an impediment to his ambitions of presidency in a country where the biggest population have only access to highly doctored information, although the effect is lessened by consideration of the fact that in Uganda the majority don't decide the coutry's destiny as has been the case for the last 23 years. Mr. Otunnu's Contender at the Interparty Cooperation, Dr. Besigye has over the years come to terms with the brutality of competiting with Mr. Museveni for his role in the 2001 and 2006 elections. He has endured the effect of rape charges, harassment of his family including children and the death of his brother on charges of terrorism. His crime has been commanding enough respect to garner support against Mr. Museveni. Mr. Otunnu must come to reality with state-inspired violence and propaganda. Aready he has been branded a homosexual, carrying the HIV /AIDS virus and has been alleged to have married a white woman which is near abominable in his Acholi culture. In a country where homosexuality has of recent gained space in the press, connecting the vice to Otunnu is a calculated way of reducing his conservative crowds in the coutryside which had remained Mr. Museveni's areas of influence, yet the possibility of him having married a white woman serves to portray him as an unpatriotic white-washed African out of touch with culture. The HIV propaganda against him serves to isolate him in a country where stigmatization of AIDs victims is high. The tactic must have worked well against Dr. Besigye. Stigmatisation of HIV victims is rampant in the country for the fear inspired by the severity of the disease. It is associated with uncouth sexual behavviour underlined by promiscuity and no God-fearing. To most the country does not need a promiscuous leader unless you are Idi Amin or Jacob Zuma. The argument is reinforced by Mr. Otuunu's marital status when at 57 he is still unmarried yet he holds aspiration to the country's top job. Marriage comes with responsibility and while there are many irresponsible married politicians even in parliament , the same doesn't hold for anyone aspiring to compete with one of Africa's longest serving rulers. And while Mr. Otunnu comes with the western support, much will depend on his ability to influence events in the country and later to impress the western foreighn policy option that would mean to keep quiet against the land bill and the Somalia projects. With Mr. Museveni's grip on the oil exploration projects and as long as Uganda contributes labour to Somalia, Otunnu as an alternative to the west is still a bleak view.
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Looking for Mr Right (7)
